作者：Y. Liu, Z. Li, J. Zhang, H. Guo, X. Jiang, S. Wang, et al.

With increasingly significant climate change trends in the next three decades, the ecological security of lake basins is of great significance to the sustainability of biospheres and human societies, and it is requisite to quantify their evolution in the future to evaluate possible impacts and risks. Here, we propose a measurement framework for the response of specific regions to climate change, and make predictions for the future situation of the Qinghai Lake basin, which plays a significant ecological role in northwestern China under three RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios by means of machine learning model prediction, geographical identification and experimental simulation. Unlike studies that focus on isolated aspects such as historical data analysis or simple predictions, this framework provides a more comprehensive and dynamic analysis of the entire chain of causes and effects underlying a specific region's response to climate change, enhancing the overall understanding of this process. Our results show that under the predicted scenarios, water level changes in Qinghai Lake over the next 30 years may lead to land cover changes affecting nearly 200 km(2), with the largest exposure of underwater land (similar to 163.79 km(2)) occurring under the RCP 4.5 scenario, predominantly meadows and deserts. Nutrient fluxes into the lake are highest under the RCP 4.5 scenario, with up to similar to 4,141 tons of total nitrogen (TN) and similar to 276 tons of total phosphorus (TP) expected by 2050, posing risks such as lakeside ecological transformation, water pollution, and eutrophication. The significant influx of nutrients highlights that preventive strategies are necessary to mitigate potential threats and ensuring ecological security and sustainable development for the Qinghai Lake basin and similar sensitive lake systems.

（来源：Journal of Hydrology 2025 Vol. 654  DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132833）