作者：C. Chen, Z. Fang, R. Zou, L. Gao, S. Zhang, Y. Zhang, et al.

Over the past 18 years, the water level of Qinghai Lake has risen by more than 4 m, resulting in a total mass increase of approximately 22 Gt. This increase may have impacted the surface deformation and fault activity within a 100 km radius of the lake. The deformation induced by water load changes is captured by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations installed around Qinghai Lake. In this study, we develop a three-dimensional elastic half-space model to explain more following surface displacement and stress change on faults caused due to lake level rise. Our results highlight that the vertical crustal movement around Qinghai Lake is mainly characterized by uplift. Additionally, we calculated the variation in Coulomb stress change on several faults nearby and found that the largest Coulomb stress change caused by the increase in lake loading is 27.8 kPa. The Coulomb stress change will further increase with the ongoing lake level rise. Assuming the projected water level rise of 14 m (to 3,207 m) by 2,035 under high-emission scenarios, our model predicts that the resulting hydrological load could amplify Coulomb stress changes on nearby faults by over threefold compared to current values. This escalation may contribute to stress conditions that are associated with increased potential for seismic activity. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that long-term fluctuations in lake filling events may modulate vertical crustal motion and influence stress conditions on fault planes, potentially contributing to seismic activity patterns.

（来源：Water Resources Research 2025 Vol. 61 Issue 5   DOI: 10.1029/2024WR038369）